Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: Step-by-Step Directions to Picking Your Hitters
So does everyone have their pens ready? Or at the very least your printers. This is going to be an in-depth breakdown of how to select your daily fantasy baseball lineup each and every day. I promise that if you can stick to this process you will see long-term success. I will be the first to admit that there are nights where the numbers that seemed to be all lined up for success and things still went down hill. But if you want to be a great daily fantasy player, you have to know that tomorrow is a new day and long-run winnings have to be the #1 goal. Take these step-by-step directions to heart and if you do the leg work each and every day, you will start to see yourself improving without having to do a ton of work!!
Here’s what you are going to need to follow this properly:
- Rosters for every team on a spreadsheet or printed out
- Reliable Batter Splits Source(try here)
STEP #1: Check out the Vegas Odds
If you need daily Vegas Odds as well as a full-description on how they can help you win money in daily fantasy, check this out. Once you are acclimated with how the Vegas Odds can help you, you need to look specifically at the OVER/UNDER lines for each game. If you see a game with 7 or less projected runs, you can cross out the teams from that game. The number of 7 runs or less usually indicates a game that is either going to be a pitcher’s duel or is showcasing two bad hitting teams.
After you have removed the players who are in games projected to be low scoring, add a (+1) to any player involved in a game that is expected to have 10 or more runs. We will be gradually adding (+1)’s to each player so keep that in mind as we move forward.
STEP #2: Remove Players Going Against Aces
Look at the Starting Pitchers for each day and make a reasonable judgement on who is facing someone considered to be an ace. A Justin Verlander, Matt Cain or Clayton Kershaw would be a good example of these types of players. Any teams facing a pitcher with an ERA between 2-3 should be taken off your list. You can go a bit above that ERA if you see an ace that might be hot after a slow start or some similar circumstances.
STEP #3: Check out the Batter vs. Pitcher Splits Page
Here is where some discretion will have to come into play . When you look at the batter vs. pitcher splits, you should add either (+1) or (+2) to any players who seem to have a great match up that night. If they really kill a pitcher, maybe you should go with the (+2) figure. But you really shouldn’t have more than 10 or so guys in total that are even in the (+1) category. You want to keep this to only EXCELLENT numbers against that day’s opposing starter.
BREAK #1 – OK, at this point you should have removed all players who are in a game with an Over/Under line of 7 or less and facing an ace. You should have also added (+1) or (+2) to any player with great batter vs. pitcher splits for that day.
STEP #4: Accounting for Lefty/Righty or Righty/Lefty Matchups
You are now going to want to go through and add a (+1) next to any player facing a pitcher of the opposite hand. If you see a lefty hitter facing a right-handed pitcher, add (+1) and vice-versa. It’s a very simplified process but we are trying to get a list of players you really like efficiently. For the most part, left handed hitters prefer to see right handed pitchers and right handed hitters will prefer to see a left handed pitcher.
STEP #5: Adjusting for Ballpark Factors
Go here to check out some of the ballpark factors like which parks are best for righties and lefties and which parks, in general, are easiest to hit at or the most difficult to hit at. Find the Top-3 Stadiums for lefties and righties and add a (+1) to any hitter who is of that hand(either left or right) and playing in one of those stadiums. Again, it’s a very generic and simple method but you need to find a way to nail down a small number of favorite players.
STEP #6: Finding The Top-5 Players
Look at the additions you have made to your players so far. You should have a clear-cut list of maybe 5 players that you LOVE for the night. These are guys that, position-pending, you want to have on every roster. Start your lineup with this base of players, no matter how expensive they might be.
STEP #7: Filling In The Holes
After you have set your roster up with these 5 or so players that you really love, you can finally start filling the remaining holes in your lineup. If you have a gut call, use that in a spot. If you have a guy that just barely missed out on your top players, see if he fits. Just try as many combinations and permutations as you can while keeping the core of your lineup. These players could end up making or breaking you, so you want to try to screw around with as many different lineup possibilities as possible until you really love one. But remember, you found your core players and only the remaining holes should be changed when doing these combos.
So it’s that simple. I know it seems like an extremely long process but it really isn’t once you get the hang of it. It should take you no more than an hour each day and you save yourself the hassle of sorting through mass amounts of statistics. Stick to the plan and start becoming consistent, I assure you that this will improve your standing if you are struggling to find the right process for winning.